why are weather forcasts so unreliable?
543424
Weather forecasters predict weather up to 10 days in advance. Their accuracy drops drastically after 2-3 days. Most weathermen predict weather by themselves for the next 24 hours. After that, they rely on computer models. So when a weatherman says it will be sunny and 90 degrees in three days, he is relying almost completely on his computer models. The fact is, computer models change constantly because the weather changes constantly. For example, cold fronts speed up, slow down, and stall. A weatherman could know how cold it'll get after the cold front, but he won't know exactly when. The only really reliable forecast is the 2-3 day forecast. The type of weather will almost always be right (sunny, partly cloudy, rainy) and the tempature will be within a couple degrees. 7 day forecasts are not really reliable, but they do give you a picture. \nOverall, weather forecasts are unreliable because the causes of weather (air pressure, jet stream, moisture) are unreliable. Weather is one of the things that make man look small and weak.
632951
it does not predict the weather....but if you have a storm moving in...the direction the storm is moving makes a difference
174792
Most of the Weather Channels have websites, look under statistics. You can also try the Science department at many schools. (Telephone)
25951
okay there is something really cool called KXAN 36-WeatherBug and immediately when you turn on your computer, it will show the actual temperature in your town! (Click on it and see the 7-day forecast, weather pictures sent in by users, weather updates and all sorts of great xtras) not exactly sure what website it came from.\n\n2 be honest, we got it by *accidentally* breaking our hard drive and getting really cool extras, apparently because when your computer breaks, they have 2 make sure u stay a customer!:)
966294
look for where it asks for the zip code. changing the zip code will change the weather forcast for that vicinity.
1023348
Just go to www.weather channel.com
144086
Try googleearth ... my husband finds it excellent.  also try weather forecasting sites such as wunderground.
791702
1) We don't know the precise state of the atmosphere and oceans everywhere at a given time.\n\n2) The mathematical equations used to forecast the weather are imperfect; approximations are made.\n\n3) The forecasts are run on a grid of points, at distinct time intervals, while the atmosphere operates smoothly at all time and space scales. That means that some processes occurring in the real atmosphere "get missed" by the forecast model and have to be approximated.\n\n4) The atmosphere is a chaotic, non-linear system, so small errors at the beginning of a forecast get larger and larger, until the forecast barely resembles what the atmosphere will be like in the future at all.
227632
Some of them do - primarily in large markets where they can afford them. I never yet saw one that matches the NWS so much as overall data quality is concerned though. Yeah they can include some neat features like zooming into streets that the data is not even accurate enough to do reliably*, and for some areas they may be better, but often echoes over large areas are not portrayed as well as with the NWS'. Even if they know how to use it properly, they may have very little choice where their radar is located. That can make a big difference - the NWS places them at sites to maximize quality & coverage.\n\nRegarding the previous post, I've forecast in some capacity for 23 years and for a very satisfied client for 10. People should be aware that radar images do not make a large portion of the information forecasters use. Past the nowcast stage (next 6 hours or so), about the only thing radar images are good for is that they give an idea of the character of precipitation associated with weather systems expected to affect a region later and how well the model forecasts are verifying - but that is only for the large scale. I.e., a local doppler radar image is practically useless except for storms which are imminent. The primary skill of forecasting is looking beyond that which you see and determining what you will be seeing at some future time using all of the available information along with your knowledge of how weather develops. I don't want to seem like a jerk responding to other people's posts, but people should realize that forecasters use much more than radar images. The reason they are not on the same page is because they all have different ideas, learned different things, have different amounts of experience, have different biases, etc. - so they produce different forecasts.\n\n* For example, the 2 NWS sites which provide coverage where I am are BGM & DIX. If an echo is directly over me, the DIX radar can show it as much as 5 miles to my N and the BGM radar as much as 14 miles to my S - usually quite a bit nearer than those extremes. Algorithms can adjust for that, but it seems also to vary with the specific situation.
887426
I've seen the forecast for tonight, it looks as if we might be in for a bit of a blow! What really worries me is that Meridian News, our region's local TV station, had a live report on the weather from Margate................I live in Margate, and if they think weather is going to be so bad that they need a film crew here, I'm afraid......very afraid!
518530
A detailed forecast for that far ahead is not likely to be particularly accurate.  Mathematical predictions suffer from compounding of small errors which build up over a period of time so that a forecast which may be pretty accurate for 3 days time becomes less so for 5 days and might be rather vague for 10 days ahead.  The movements of air in the atmosphere is quite chaotic and difficult to predict in any case.\n\nIt also depends on the sort of weather - rapidly changing conditions are more difficult to predict.  Here in the UK it is notoriously difficult to predict snowfall with any accuracy as a small difference in temperature can mean the difference between a rainstorm and a blizzard.
583759
People think meteorologist just guess the weather, but they actually go thru one of the hardest classes in college.  Just let the public know.  I think that they do really good to predict the weather for a week to even month span, it justs makes me curious about how good or bad of a month its going to be.  Me my self is majoring on Meteorology and i kno predicting a week, month or even sometimes the year ina whole is really difficult.
787218
watch the weather channel....duh
559800
ask at the national weather service database.  all reporting stations have their data recorded, if there is one there, they know the answer.
107162
Similarities: Both are usually wrong ;-) Just kidding.\n\nA short term weather forcast is going to give you the weather for a shorter period of time than a long-term weather report is. Also, the short term is likely to stay the same, or closest to what was reported because of how near it is. Long term on the other hand will likely change between the time it is firt forcast and the time the weather actually arrives.
1050165
Okay, again, lots of answers, getting nowhere.\n\nFirst of all let me tell you I am the Chief Meteorologist of a local news/weather forum, just so you know I`m a credible source.\n\n\n--My answer--\nI was at a meteorological science convention with a few of my peers not too long ago.  This was one of the "tests" that came up.\nAs the last post said, it is RELATIVELY rare (only occurring in 6 out of 20 studies)......... but it did happen.  Electricity was successfully transferred from the plumbing system of the test bathroom, to the sensors inside the "man" in the shower.\n\n**Bottom Line**\nStay off the phone, stay off the computer, stay out of the tub........ just sit and enjoy mother nature, as she does her work.\n\n\nTake care...\nWeather_Wise911
503002
contact the National Weather Service...\n\nwww.nws.noaa.gov