what are the types of forecasting used to predict asset prices?
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1) cash flow method\n2) appraisal\n3) comparison with similar transactions and assets
1146224
OK, let's put some numbers on the problem.  We have an asset with monthly volatility of about 10% and a near-zero expected return in the long run. How likely is it that its price will increase by 70% in five months?  If I am doing my math correctly, this would be a 3.17 standard deviation event, meaning that the likelihood of that happening is about 0.08%. \n\nIf you built an ARMA model, you could probably get a higher likelihood estimate though...  I'd run one out of curiosity, but I don't have eViews handy...
1124193
Any major financial news site or paper will have them.\n\nhttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/
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Your best bet is to buy S&P DEP RECEIPTS (Symbol SPY).  they give you the diversity of the S&P 500 index.
496047
Software cannot predict stock prices reliably.  It's been scientifically shown that price trends have no predictive value--in other words, it's basically random.\n\nIf software could predict stock prices, people would use that information to dump money in and out of those stocks, which would change the price and render the prediction useless.
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This question can have a number of answers, depending upon which context it refers to.  \n\nFor example, imagine a life insurance company receives premiums on a regular and predictable basis.  They invest most of this money in the equity market.  Then they have to pay out money on life insurance policies as people die.\n\nHow much will they have to pay out?  Well, it depends upon your assumptions.  If you assume that people will more or less live as long as they usually have in the past, then you can use tables of numbers that let you estimate how much money will probably need to be paid out over time.  this is an estimate and cannot be certain, and so some assumptions and mathematical models are used.  Hence the word "modelling".\n\nThe money they have to pay out is their "liability".\n\nTheir assets are whatever they bought with the premiums they received, as in stock.  Will the stock market grow enough so that stock can be sold to pay out on the life policies? That depends on  how you model the returns of the stock market.\n\nIn the past, actuaries assumed that stocks will make as much money as they usually have in the last 20 years or so.  Unfortunately they may be wrong.  Another model that is safer to use is that of "risk neutral valuation" which is a model used in option pricing.  it is also the model used by banks to value their assets and liabilities.\n\nhope that example explains the idea.
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StockCharts has a good writeup on their calculation, including a sample EXCEL spreadsheet that does the actual calculations:\n\nhttp://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_movingAvg.html\n\nHowever, in regards to your specific question -- you start out with a simple moving average for the specified time period and then apply the exponential algorithm from there...
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Maybe look into GASB34.  It's an accounting standard for government.  It is causing a lot of uproar because of what it means for asset management.  Hot topic right now.
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There are a number of methods.  To help you locate (i.e. a Google Search) which method is best for you, consider the following specific methods:\n\nARIMA\nLinear/Non-Linear/Log Linear Trending\nFirst Differencing\nWinters\n\nStep 1:  Plot your data ... always plot your data\nStep 2:  Is there a Seasonal Component ?  Example:  If it's car sales, well then probably ... if it's pounds of beef purchased each month, probably no.\nStep 3:  Is it linear or could it be made linear (i.e. if you plotted the natural log of the values, does that straighten out the pattern a bit ?\n\nTime series forecasting can be very interesting ... I suggest that you seek out someone with a little experience in this area that can help you out.  This is generally college level (first/second year undergrad) stuff, so it's not too difficult, but not something that you'd really want to just "learn on your own"\n\nI do this professionally and would be glad to help (don't worry, I won't charge you).  Step 1 for that would be to send me your data and we'll take a look at it.  My contact info is in my profile.
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Hands down, the right answer is Investors FastTrack's Momentum Model by FTALpha using Exchange Traded funds.\n\nhttp://www.fasttrack.net/newhelp/Trading_sector_funds.asp
1134715
Valuation of financial derivatives (options, futures, forwards, etc)\nReal hard math, but real good money.
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ARIMA combines autoregression--which fits the current data point to a linear function (usually) of some prior data points--and moving averages--adding together several consecutive data points and getting their mean, and then using that to compute estimations of the next value.\n\nThe advantage is that, with enough elements regressed and averaged, you can fit an approximation to almost any time series you like, to whatever precision you like.\n\nThe trouble, of course, is Slutzsky's theorem:  Slutzsky showed that, by using ARIMA type computation, and perhaps adding a trend line or two, you can take random noise into any time series you like...  The point?  Well, it basically means that you may fit the data magnificently, but the ARIMA fit could still be total nonsense...
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http://www.visteon.com/utils/whitepapers/20_ccwdc.pdf#search='generalized%20predictive%20control'\n\nthis is an explanation with an example.
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Prediction - Stab in the dark.\n\nEstimation - Educated guess based on knowledge you already have.\n\nExpectation - The anticipated results of the educated guess you made.
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Primary,secondary and tertiary trends in technical analysis are the long term, middle long and short term trend. \nThis is not really an answer as long, middle and short term are rather subjective terms, depending on the commodity or stock. \n\nIn technical analysis one uses not only prices (Open, High, Low and Close) but also Volume to construct indicators.
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Financial forecasting considers variables like how your dollar and spending power will be effected by interest rates, the price of goods and services, etc in the future.\n\nBudgeting is more "real-time' dealing with the practical world... your capital and your financial goals.\n\nYou are very bright to realize that they go hand in hand.\n\nFor example you are budgeting to buy a house but know that the financial forecast for real estate is trending down now, so that tells you may not need to completely impoverish yoursefl by saving your money living like a monk (as in rice and beans every night, lol) in order to save for a down payment or if you save for a little longer you're going to get more house (because of the falling house price trend over time)\n\nOr budgeting for that HUGE LCD TV, means that you won't need to save as much as HD TV prices are falling, etc, etc.\n\nOf course the opposite is true if you are saving for college as the tuition price trend is going higher and higher.
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ROaA\nReturn on Average Assets\n\nRoaE\nReturn on Average Equity\n\nNIM is net interest margin