What's your opinion: will the Avian Flu really become contagious via human to human contact?
451441
Tough Question - My glib answer is that it won't happen because I am taking precautions for an outbreak. Evey time I take precautions for a disaster nothing happens;) \n\nWhy I am worried is because one case of human to human transmission has happened in Thailand. Also the flu has a week incubation period and during that time it can be spread.   \n\nSpanish flu killed between 50 & 100 million in 1918 and started off as an avian virus. Experts say that the Spanish flu virus had 12 mutations which made it adapt from just infecting birds to infecting pigs and humans.  The mass fowl cullings around the world seem to be preventing any adapted viruses from starting a human pandemic. However the virus has reached countries that don't have the infrastructure, because of bad government, war and poverty, to identify and contain H5N1 in birds. This means that if the adaption happens it could get a foothold in the human population and then start spreading. \n\nThe next point is what do you mean by "really become  contagious?" \n\nMost of the models of the spread of a pandemic are based on past infections. Most predictions are scientifically valid but they depend on a number of factors that can not be controlled. If avian flu mutates to human to human it may become less lethal and it may not be as contagious as it is now. The only way that the statistics will be proved depends on what the H5N1 virus does next.\n\nThe range of the numbers show just how difficult it is to get a clear idea of what may happen. Here are some numbers I crunched based on assumptions and a worldwide population of 6 billion. Note fatalities are based on no medical treatment. \n\n1.) Bird flu stays in birds and can only be transmitted through eating uncooked chicken, exposure to dead birds and drinking or eating things that have been infected.\n% of world population that gets sick 0.000040%\nNo. Sick 2,400\n% fatalities 63.64%\nNo. fatalities 1,527\n\n2.) Bird flu mutates and is really weakened in the mutation \n% of world population that gets sick 25%\nNo. Sick 1,500,000,000\n% fatalities 0.50% (half a percent)\nNo. fatalities 7,500,000\n\n3.) Bird flu mutates and is as virulent as the spanish flu of 1918 (WHO figures) \n% of world population that gets sick 50%\nNo. Sick 3,000,000,000\n% fatalities 5%\nNo. fatalities 150,000,000\n\nThese models become scarier and scarier the worse the plagues and disasters used as a base. All they really say is that if there is a pandemic people, without medical help, will die. They don't say that it will happen. (If you want to really scare yourself or someone else do the maths on bubonic plague 80% infected and 80% fatalities).  \n\nSo overall I'll say there is a chance of this avian fly being the next pandemic. The chance is not so terrifyingly likely that I am going to sell up and move to a defendable mountaintop and start shooting at strangers. However the chance is big enough that I have spent about $100 dollars on Tamiflu and food - just in case. \n\nThe only people who have told me with a 100% certainty that the pandemic is going to happen and everyone will die are people who are trying to sell me stuff to survive the coming pandemic. I think they are pretty biased.
154127
No, I don't think so. My understanding is you would have to be living in very close surroundings with poultry that have the virus, or in close contact with live birds.\n\nHowever, I guess we'll be discovering new stuff about bird flu for years to come.
301002
The reason we watch asian flus is b/c the farms there are set up w/ ponds where ducks rest and pigs drink. The duck/bird strains are more likely to mutate to the pig first than to a human- the catch is, a pig is actually very close to us as far as internal working go, and it is easier for a pig strain (origianlly from a bird) can then mutate to infect the farmers... and then spread to the general population. So the likelihood... good. Pray. Peace out.
220354
As it stands right now, most people are safe from the bird flu. The other answers are right in that you have to handle infected birds to get the virus. Most of the time, we are safe from a virus that is carried by another species. Occasionally, however, a virus mutates in such a way that it is able to "jump species" and infect humans. When this happens, our immune system is little prepared to defend us from the unusual-type virus. The good news is that right now it can only pass from birds to humans. If it should mutate to the point that humans can pass it amongst themselves, then it will likely become pandemic. Therefore, the fears that people are having are based on "scientific possibility" and the government is responding to those fears; not creating the fear.
340691
Well, I guess it depends on what kind of illness.  Is it contagious?  Otherwise, most people will be sympathetic to someone who is sick.
398902
That depends on the specific disease. There's coughing on someone, sharing saliva, blood to blood, sex, touching something that a sick person has touched and not washing your hands, drinking after someone. Usually the diseases with the highest morbidity or mortality rates are not so easily caught as touching the same things as someone else, so I wouldn't worry too much about that. It really depends on what kind of disease you're talking about, your question is not real specific.\nHIV is spread through sex or blood to blood. Typhoid can be spread, for example, by someone using the restroom and not washing their hands, and then preparing food. Colds and Flus are spread by coughing on someone or touching someting that a contagious person touched and not washing your hands. There are STDs you get from sex.\nThere are a lot of ways to get diseases from other people and animals. Being bitten by an animal too.\nYou can get certain diseases by drinking milk that has not been pasteurized. There are so many ways, and so many diseases. Click on the link for more information.
712825
Influenza is actually an airborne disease. If someone who already has it, even if they don't know it yet, they can spread the virus. If they cough, sneeze, etc there is a large area of respiratory droplets that are produced but even normal face to face conversation can spread the droplets when the infected person sneezes.  Infected people should wear a mask if they have to be near healthy people, anyone in contact with infected people should wash their hands before and after contact.\nI believe the previous answer is related more to "the stomach flu" which is spread through body fluids such as saliva.
535981
Influenza is a real threat only when it crosses the species barrier i.e. can be transmitted from pigs to birds to humans.  So far this Avian flu has not crossed the species barrier to humans, staying within the confines of the bird community.  Once humans start displaying the symptoms of the Avian flu, then we will have something to worry about.  Best course of action: make sure your immune system is up to scratch and don't worry because itll take some time to mutate, unless we fight it with antibiotics which will make it mutate faster and then.........
284477
It's very contagious, but the only way you would catch it is if they touched their eye, then your hand, then you touched your eye.  Wash your hands right away, and try to remember if you've touched your eyes since your contact with this person.
141270
Whatever ...\nBoth will now die due to the avian flu ..
276657
Bird flu cannot go from one person to another, in fact only people to have died of bird flu have worked directly in the bird industry. If the bird flu mutates then it will be transmittable between people.
98319
Kill all affected birds, human in direct contact with those birds are prone to bird flu, last 3 years 92 people are dead from bird flu and all were bird handlers.\n\nThere is no harm in eating well cooked chicken and egg.\n\nIt has not yet spead from humam to human but danger is still there.
102892
at this point, I am very concerned since only insects outnumber the birds in the world and they are airborn. The mutation could occur at any moment and infect humans. This is how the flu of 1917 or so occured and spread rapidly
658904
H5N1 is not currently a threat, but the possibility of becoming a threat is very real.  If bird flu were to mutate to a form transmissable from human to human, this could be a potential disaster--similar to the influenza pandemic of 1918 that killed more people than WWI.  The 1918 flu traveled around the world and 20-40 million people died.  It was so bad, it shortened the average life expectancy by 10 years.\n\nRecent DNA studies have shown that this 1918 flu was a bird flu that mutated to infect humans.  It began in people who were in contact with poultry.  This is the reason for all the concern about H5N1--there is the potential for it to happen all over again.  It hasn't happened yet, but if we don't come up with some kind of vaccine, it may be only a matter of time.
461321
Yes...\n\nMy job requires looking at hundreds of avian influenza articles per week. It influences me as a form of torture.\n\nEventually, however, avian influenza will influence all of us. There is the possibility it will mutate into a form that infects upper respiratory tract cells, and thus spreads from person to person. The probability of that happening is undetermined. \n\nEven if that doesn't happen, avian influenza has had a profound affect upon the poultry industry of every country in which it has been found. The U.S. pountry industry (if you are in the U.S.) will be less affected than many other countries, because so many of our chicken's are raised indoors. Nevertheless, the U.S. pountry industry will have to undergo many regional culls. This will actually drive the price of poultry down, as we have seen in other countries, because people will be scared to buy chickens. The economic ripple effect will be felt by everyone, in one form or another.\n\nBut, we will survive. All chickens will be raised indoors, in time.\n\nThe U.S. might experience less regional outbreaks of avian influenza than other countries, because West Nile Virus has devastated local wild bird populations - meaning there is less of a vector for avian influenza to use. However, migratory bird populations, such as ducks, will still spread it to farms where chicken's and other poultry are exposed to the outdoors.
1020451
Actually bird flu is affecting people. Well over 200 people world wide have been infected with the virus. The fatality rate is over 50%, and it has been spreading across Asia, Europe and Africa.\n\nMany of these infections have resulted from close contact with poultry, but there are several clusters of infection where the virus has been spread from person to person. \n\nOne recent cluster was on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia. A woman contracted the disease and it spread from her to seven members of her family. Seven of the eight family members died.\n\nRight now we are seeing only limited person to person transmission. The fear is that the virus will mutate so that person to person transmission will happen easily and we will have a pandemic.\n\nEverytime a person gets avian flu (bird flu) there is a chance of it mutating so that it can be early spread.\n\nWe do not have a vaccine for this particular virus. They can't start working on a vaccine until it does mutate and it will take about 6-8 months to begin to produce vaccine.\n\nThe antiviral medicine Tamiflu may reduce the symptoms and reduce the chance of death, but there isn't enough Taniflu. At this point it looks as though medical personnel may get the first doses so that they can continue to take care of patients who have the flu.\n\nThe government has asked people to prepare for the flu by stocking supplies for our families in case we are asked to  practice "social distancing." That would be a quarantine where people are told to stay home to reduce the spread of the disease. Schools would close, there would be no church services, concerts, meetings, etc.\n\nWe are asked to have food, water, medicine, medical supplies, etc.\n\nIf you are interested in knowing more about bird flu, a good source of information is http://www.avianflutalk.com/  You will find current news, discussion, information about bird flu, and people who will be happy to answer any questions that you may have.
791346
No one knows. They have done many studies to see if that's even true and they found out that it is "contagious" but no one knows why.