Is the stockmarket predictable in any way?  Or is it really pure luck?
81339
There's an excellent book about this, & related scenarios, entitled, "The Wisdom of Crowds," by James Surowiecki. He takes on the notion of "experts" who try to predict the market & advise investors. Historically, they have pretty rotten results.\n\nHow non-experts behave in predictive situations is surprisingly much better. Surowiecki's book is intelligent, interesting, astonishing, and useful, though it's not in any way a guide to investment. His observations and hypotheses aren't offered up in that spirit.\n\nIf you like listening to books-on-tape/CD, I think it's available; and you can download it for a reasonable price at audible.com.\n\nSurowiecki writes on the economy for "The New Yorker."\n\nI can promise that the world will make a little more sense to you and will becoming a little more frustrating when you've read what he has to say.\n\nHe takes on the idea of "clutch hitters" in baseball. Turns out it's a myth.
216354
If you have to ask that question in this public forum, I doubt that you are positioned to risk your money in any stock today. Stock market prices are driven by Public Perception and not necessarily by the value or the income of the company. Take a look at Exxon Mobil (XOM) for the last 6 months while oil and gasoline prices were going up. XOM is down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial is up 7.5%. Investors who put down their money without doing their homework are easily fleeced by brokers, some who hang around chat rooms hoping to get young investors into their areas of service. Remember one thing if nothing else: stock trading is a net zero business; it produces one loser for each winner, and the loser is usually the little guy who buys (through a broker) what the big guy doesn't want. Study how the market works, find newsletters that have a good history of recommending stocks, invest your money in a step after step manner, maybe 20% each month for 5 months, and be ready to sell even if at a small loss if the value of your selected stock decreases by more than 10-20%. You will have to set your own loss limits. Good luck, but don't rush.
856540
Well dwespite what anyone will tell you there is no such thing as a 100% stable stock.
1087936
no there is nothing like your own common sense there are too many people who know nothing but teach everything at a price; take what you save and invest on a horse which you think has been improving and is a good value price win or lose its your choice i dont make fortunes with this system but i am not losing either.believe me its good advice. bet bigger prices but less often. yours cookedermott@yahoo.co.uk
1186247
On the springboard of life, can't we invest our thoughts on a higher plane without the same stock answers. Can we not form a stronger bond without taking the plunge? I t doesn't take much to make the stock market nervous (notice how we refer to it as an organic entity?). I can remember analysts informing us that good news (better than forcasted) spooked the market. I can't recall the details, but the upshot was that the news, while being optimistic, could lead to inflation or deflation or recession, or who knows. Trying to read the tea leaves of the stock market will drive us all crazy.  Invest in companies, not stocks. Companies that have high growth yields. Anything else is like playing with Tarot cards.
13458
Not only do I believe in luck, but luck is a real thing. Probabilities explain certain events, but repeatedly beating probabilities is what "luck" is.
924097
Yes, there are lots.\n\nYou just have to do your research.  \n\nThis is something that Cramer (of CNBC's Mad Money) does a pretty good job of identifying these.  \n\nNow as for bounce back soon, that's a little tougher to call because the market can be fickle.  Sometimes the stocks bounce back very soon, and sometimes it takes like a year.\n\nThat part is tougher to time.  But a good company is generally a good company and that's why many fundamental traders will invest in them for the "long" run.\n\nHope that helps!
828757
Well, if it's cheap like mine, I'd say the probability is great.  Cheap sets are made by the hundreds of thousands...\nSo big whoop.  Does that mean it's fate?
645579
such a thing, and i don't even want to say it, is just one of the zillions of stuff that analysts and so called stock market gurus use to give you a fair glimpse of market behavior. but none of them is ever reliable. evereything in the market is still a crap shoot! that's why bill gates never plays it. he only invests in his own corporation because it's part of being an owner. and even at that, it's still a gamble.in the case of warren buffet, he just got lucky with a washington utility and that was his spring board that he guarded all his life.
820610
Well, one doesn't *predict* breakouts. It is just that some situation are more favourable for breakouts than others. \nTypical good pattern are triangles and flags. In both cases uptrending stocks temporarily go sideways, when for a while more people want to go out than come in. After a while those who wanted to sell have done so, which shows in the dropping volume. \nIn those cases you would put your buy stop just above the triangle.\n\nYou are not predicting the breakout, just waiting for it to happen.\nIf it doesn't, you aren't filled and that's it.
607234
It sure can be. Ive studied it off and on for awhile. Lots of different angles to using the stock market. Depends on the person. \n\nGet a few books, study up on the angles that particular person used and how it worked for them. Figure out what you feel comfy with.
688652
Instead of a random walk down Wall Street, step inside the exchange and walk down the rows of successful traders who use Technical Analysis. Even the Institutions have embraced the method and almost all now have a Technical Analyst. \n\nYou, yourself, have seen evidence of hundreds of books on TA. Proof enough.\n\nThe reason it can't be proven, is that the markets are driven by emotion; feelings of greed and fear. Some say the markets are 50% psychological. This is not quantifiable. \n\nBut humans haven't changed much in the past several hundred years, and react the same way to certain stimulus, repeating time and again certain circumstances. Although not quantifiable numerically, they can be represented graphically as momentum of emotion; fear and greed indicators. \n\nIt is not an exact science, as the Random Walk people would have you believe, but rather a guage of ranges and probabilities. But all of the casinos and gambling houses have proven that if you can increase your odds by only a few percent, and have sufficient backing, you will win in the long run. If you approach investing as a gambler, you will lose the same as other gamblers. Speculating is not gambling, even though both use odds. Different subject.\n\nYou are correct, winning formulas do not last forever. Part of being a winning trader is constantly developing new methods, constantly improving, constantly learning and becoming more humble and forgiving, and constantly fighting our fear and greed. I had a killer indicator that worked very well for seven years, then it just stopped working. A winning trader is open minded and constantly aware of these changes, rather than closed-minded saying "nothing works." \n\nPeople looking for the magic formula will find that TA is too much work. The secret lies within each of us, while a lot of indicators will improve your odds. We each have to find what works for us. If we were all Technical Analysts, it would be a very difficult business indeed.
18303
Do your own research and don't rely on other people's "tips"   I started doing my own stock screening and research this past year and I've earned higher returns this year than in years past.  Based on personal experience, most stock tips are useless.
638699
Probability is 100%. There have been many "crashes" and there will be many more. What tends to happen is that people become euphoric about stocks and they bid the prices above what they are reasonably worth. The trend feeds on itself until eventually the bubble bursts. Then all of a sudden the trend is reversed and the selling feeds on itself and stock prices keep falling and falling. \n\nThe crash may not be as bad as the 29 crash or the 72 crash or 86 crash or the 2000 crash but it is a certainty. As certain as death.
43965
The "whole market" may not because it is so diverse (e.g. some hedge strategies may even gain) but its probable that tech. in general is going to take a hit because its a Co. that leads in big way and huge investor base.  Its a good research question cause you'll have to separate the day's effects of the Fed rate increase, change of the Fed Chair, and volatile oil mkt.
985518
Study hard for it and hopefully you ill!!! I cant predict future .. but you earn what you invest in. Study and the return will be delightful :)
160926
Any responsible trader or investor will tell you that there is no such thing as a "top" stock pick. Every equity has risk involved. You need to think for yourself. Taking tips on Yahoo is a good way to end up in the poor house.