Daily Papers

Using solar-cycle long helioseismic measurements of meridional and zonal flows in the near-surface shear layer (NSSL) of the Sun, we study their spatio-temporal variations and connections to active regions. We find that near-surface inflows towards active latitudes are part of a local circulation with an outflow away from them at depths around 0.97 R, which is also the location where the deviations in the radial gradient of rotation change sign. These results, together with opposite-signed changes over latitude and depth in the above quantities observed during the solar minimum period, point to the action of the Coriolis force on large-scale flows as the primary cause of changes in the rotation gradient within the NSSL. We also find that such Coriolis force-mediated changes in near-surface flows towards active latitudes only marginally change the amplitude of zonal flow and hence are not likely to be its driving force. Our measurements typically achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio (>5σ) for near-surface flows but can drop to 3σ near the base (0.95 R) of the NSSL. Close agreements between the depth profiles of changes in rotation gradient and in meridional flows measured from quite different global and local helioseismic techniques, respectively, show that the results are not dependent on the analysis techniques.

We assess the relative strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 with respect to SCs 23 and 24 based on the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We make use of the halo CME database (https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/halo/halo.html) to compare the halo CME abundance during the first four years in each of SCs 23 to 25. The main result is that in several aspects such as the abundance, occurrence rate, source locations, and halo heights, halo CMEs are similar between SCs 24 and 25 but different from SC 23. This result follows from the fact that weaker cycles have low heliospheric total pressure, whose backreaction on CMEs allows them to expand more and hence enhancing the chance of becoming a halo. The solar cycle variation of halo CME properties is consistent with the precursor-based cycle prediction methods that indicate SC 25 is similar to or only slightly stronger than SC 24.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

The steady-state gamma-ray emission from the Sun is thought to consist of two emission components due to interactions with Galactic cosmic rays: (1) a hadronic component covering the solar disk, and (2) a leptonic component peaking at the solar edge and extending into the heliosphere. The flux of these components is expected to vary with the 11-year solar cycle, being highest during solar minimum and lowest during solar maximum, because it is correlated with the cosmic-ray flux. No study has yet analyzed the flux variation of the two components separately over solar cycles. In this work, we measure the temporal variations of the flux of each component over 15 years of Fermi Large Area Telescope observations and compare them with the sunspot number and Galactic cosmic-ray flux from AMS-02 near the Earth. We find that the flux variation of the disk anticorrelates with solar activity and correlates with cosmic-ray protons, confirming its emission mechanism. The flux variation of the extended component anticorrelates with solar activity only until mid 2012. After that, we no longer observe any correlation or anticorrelation, even with the CR electron flux. This most likely suggests that cosmic-ray transport and modulation in the inner heliosphere are unexpectedly complex and different for electrons and protons or, alternatively, the presence of an additional, unknown component of gamma rays or cosmic rays. These findings impact space weather research and emphasize the need for close monitoring of Cycle 25 and the ongoing polarity reversal.

Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success across various scientific domains, motivating our exploration of their potential in solar physics. In this paper, we present Solaris, the first foundation model for forecasting the Sun's atmosphere. We leverage 13 years of full-disk, multi-wavelength solar imagery from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, spanning a complete solar cycle, to pre-train Solaris for 12-hour interval forecasting. Solaris is built on a large-scale 3D Swin Transformer architecture with 109 million parameters. We demonstrate Solaris' ability to generalize by fine-tuning on a low-data regime using a single wavelength (1700 {\AA}), that was not included in pre-training, outperforming models trained from scratch on this specific wavelength. Our results indicate that Solaris can effectively capture the complex dynamics of the solar atmosphere and transform solar forecasting.

This paper introduces a high resolution, machine learning-ready heliophysics dataset derived from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), specifically designed to advance machine learning (ML) applications in solar physics and space weather forecasting. The dataset includes processed imagery from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), spanning a solar cycle from May 2010 to July 2024. To ensure suitability for ML tasks, the data has been preprocessed, including correction of spacecraft roll angles, orbital adjustments, exposure normalization, and degradation compensation. We also provide auxiliary application benchmark datasets complementing the core SDO dataset. These provide benchmark applications for central heliophysics and space weather tasks such as active region segmentation, active region emergence forecasting, coronal field extrapolation, solar flare prediction, solar EUV spectra prediction, and solar wind speed estimation. By establishing a unified, standardized data collection, this dataset aims to facilitate benchmarking, enhance reproducibility, and accelerate the development of AI-driven models for critical space weather prediction tasks, bridging gaps between solar physics, machine learning, and operational forecasting.

Solar irradiance and its variations in the ultraviolet (UV) control the photochemistry in Earth's atmosphere and influence Earth's climate. The variability of Mg II h and k core-to-wing ratio, also known as the Mg II index, is highly correlated with the solar UV irradiance variability. Because of this, Mg II index is routinely used as a proxy for solar UV irradiance variability, which can help to get insights into the influence of solar UV irradiance variability on Earth's climate. Measurements of the Mg II index, however, have only been carried out since 1978 and do not cover the climate relevant timescales longer than a few decades. Here we present a model to calculate the Mg II index and its variability based on the well-established SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model. We demonstrate that our model calculations yield an excellent agreement with the observed Mg II index variations, both on the solar activity cycle and on the solar rotation timescales. Using this model, we synthesize Mg II index timeseries on climate relevant timescales of decades and longer. Here we present the timeseries of the Mg II index spanning nearly three centuries.

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often lack representation learning from solar images. On the other hand, end-to-end learning approaches struggle to model long-range temporal dependencies in solar images. In this study, we propose Deep Space Weather Model (Deep SWM), which is based on multiple deep state space models for handling both ten-channel solar images and long-range spatio-temporal dependencies. Deep SWM also features a sparse masked autoencoder, a novel pretraining strategy that employs a two-phase masking approach to preserve crucial regions such as sunspots while compressing spatial information. Furthermore, we built FlareBench, a new public benchmark for solar flare prediction covering a full 11-year solar activity cycle, to validate our method. Our method outperformed baseline methods and even human expert performance on standard metrics in terms of performance and reliability. The project page can be found at https://keio-smilab25.github.io/DeepSWM.

The objective of this study is to develop a fully compressible magnetohydrodynamic solver for fast simulations of the global dynamo of the Sun using unstructured grids and GPUs. Accurate modeling of the Sun's convective layers is vital to predicting the Sun's behavior, including the solar dynamo and sunspot cycles. Currently, there are many efficient codes capable of conducting these large simulations; however, many assume an anealastic density distribution. The anelastic assumption is capable of producing accurate results for low mach numbers; however, it fails in regions with a higher mach number and a fully compressible flow must be considered. To avoid these issues, Wang et al. [1] created a Compressible High-ORder Unstructured Spectral difference (CHORUS) code for simulating fluid dynamics inside stars and planets. CHORUS++ augmented the CHORUS code to adopt a higher degree of polynomials by using cubed-sphere meshing and transfinite mapping to perform simulations on unstructured grids [2]. Recently, CHORUS++ was further developed for parallel magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions on GPUs at Clarkson University. In this study the solar benchmark problems presented by Chen et al. [2] are extended to unsteady solar dynamo problems, with two different density scale heights. The CHORUS-MHD code is further accelerated by multiple GPUs and used to successfully solve these solar dynamo benchmark problems. [1] Wang, J., Liang, C., and Miesch, M. S., "A Compressible High-Order Unstructured Spectral Difference Code for Stratified Convection in Rotating Spherical Shells," Journal of Computational Physics, Vol. 290, 2015, pp. 90-111. [2] Chen, K., Liang, C., and Wan, M., "Arbitrarily high-order accurate simulations of compressible rotationally constrained convection using a transfinite mapping on cubed-sphere grids," Physics of Fluids, Vol. 35, 2023, p. 086120.

We propose a self-consistent explanation of Rieger-type periodicities, the Schwabe cycle, and the Suess-de Vries cycle of the solar dynamo in terms of resonances of various wave phenomena with gravitational forces exerted by the orbiting planets. Starting on the high-frequency side, we show that the two-planet spring tides of Venus, Earth and Jupiter are able to excite magneto-Rossby waves which can be linked with typical Rieger-type periods. We argue then that the 11.07-year beat period of those magneto-Rossby waves synchronizes an underlying conventional alpha-Omega-dynamo, by periodically changing either the field storage capacity in the tachocline or some portion of the alpha-effect therein. We also strengthen the argument that the Suess-de Vries cycle appears as an 193-year beat period between the 22.14-year Hale cycle and a spin-orbit coupling effect related with the 19.86-year rosette-like motion of the Sun around the barycenter.