Daily Papers

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly relies on multi-agent architectures that blend visual and language understanding. Yet, a pressing challenge remains: How can we trust these agents especially in zero-shot settings with no fine-tuning? We introduce a novel modular Agentic AI visual classification framework that integrates generalist multimodal agents with a non-visual reasoning orchestrator and a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) module. Applied to apple leaf disease diagnosis, we benchmark three configurations: (I) zero-shot with confidence-based orchestration, (II) fine-tuned agents with improved performance, and (III) trust-calibrated orchestration enhanced by CLIP-based image retrieval and re-evaluation loops. Using confidence calibration metrics (ECE, OCR, CCC), the orchestrator modulates trust across agents. Our results demonstrate a 77.94\% accuracy improvement in the zero-shot setting using trust-aware orchestration and RAG, achieving 85.63\% overall. GPT-4o showed better calibration, while Qwen-2.5-VL displayed overconfidence. Furthermore, image-RAG grounded predictions with visually similar cases, enabling correction of agent overconfidence via iterative re-evaluation. The proposed system separates perception (vision agents) from meta-reasoning (orchestrator), enabling scalable and interpretable multi-agent AI. This blueprint is extensible to diagnostics, biology, and other trust-critical domains. All models, prompts, results, and system components including the complete software source code are openly released to support reproducibility, transparency, and community benchmarking at Github: https://github.com/Applied-AI-Research-Lab/Orchestrator-Agent-Trust

Alzheimer's disease (AD) constitutes a complex neurocognitive disease and is the main cause of dementia. Although many studies have been proposed targeting at diagnosing dementia through spontaneous speech, there are still limitations. Existing state-of-the-art approaches, which propose multimodal methods, train separately language and acoustic models, employ majority-vote approaches, and concatenate the representations of the different modalities either at the input level, i.e., early fusion, or during training. Also, some of them employ self-attention layers, which calculate the dependencies between representations without considering the contextual information. In addition, no prior work has taken into consideration the model calibration. To address these limitations, we propose some new methods for detecting AD patients, which capture the intra- and cross-modal interactions. First, we convert the audio files into log-Mel spectrograms, their delta, and delta-delta and create in this way an image per audio file consisting of three channels. Next, we pass each transcript and image through BERT and DeiT models respectively. After that, context-based self-attention layers, self-attention layers with a gate model, and optimal transport domain adaptation methods are employed for capturing the intra- and inter-modal interactions. Finally, we exploit two methods for fusing the self and cross-attended features. For taking into account the model calibration, we apply label smoothing. We use both performance and calibration metrics. Experiments conducted on the ADReSS Challenge dataset indicate the efficacy of our introduced approaches over existing research initiatives with our best performing model reaching Accuracy and F1-score up to 91.25% and 91.06% respectively.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

Due to depth ambiguities and occlusions, lifting 2D poses to 3D is a highly ill-posed problem. Well-calibrated distributions of possible poses can make these ambiguities explicit and preserve the resulting uncertainty for downstream tasks. This study shows that previous attempts, which account for these ambiguities via multiple hypotheses generation, produce miscalibrated distributions. We identify that miscalibration can be attributed to the use of sample-based metrics such as minMPJPE. In a series of simulations, we show that minimizing minMPJPE, as commonly done, should converge to the correct mean prediction. However, it fails to correctly capture the uncertainty, thus resulting in a miscalibrated distribution. To mitigate this problem, we propose an accurate and well-calibrated model called Conditional Graph Normalizing Flow (cGNFs). Our model is structured such that a single cGNF can estimate both conditional and marginal densities within the same model - effectively solving a zero-shot density estimation problem. We evaluate cGNF on the Human~3.6M dataset and show that cGNF provides a well-calibrated distribution estimate while being close to state-of-the-art in terms of overall minMPJPE. Furthermore, cGNF outperforms previous methods on occluded joints while it remains well-calibrated.

Deep learning (DL) has become the dominant approach for medical image segmentation, yet ensuring the reliability and clinical applicability of these models requires addressing key challenges such as annotation variability, calibration, and uncertainty estimation. This is why we created the Calibration and Uncertainty for multiRater Volume Assessment in multiorgan Segmentation (CURVAS), which highlights the critical role of multiple annotators in establishing a more comprehensive ground truth, emphasizing that segmentation is inherently subjective and that leveraging inter-annotator variability is essential for robust model evaluation. Seven teams participated in the challenge, submitting a variety of DL models evaluated using metrics such as Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). By incorporating consensus and dissensus ground truth, we assess how DL models handle uncertainty and whether their confidence estimates align with true segmentation performance. Our findings reinforce the importance of well-calibrated models, as better calibration is strongly correlated with the quality of the results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that segmentation models trained on diverse datasets and enriched with pre-trained knowledge exhibit greater robustness, particularly in cases deviating from standard anatomical structures. Notably, the best-performing models achieved high DSC and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. This work underscores the need for multi-annotator ground truth, thorough calibration assessments, and uncertainty-aware evaluations to develop trustworthy and clinically reliable DL-based medical image segmentation models.

Summarization models often generate text that is poorly calibrated to quality metrics because they are trained to maximize the likelihood of a single reference (MLE). To address this, recent work has added a calibration step, which exposes a model to its own ranked outputs to improve relevance or, in a separate line of work, contrasts positive and negative sets to improve faithfulness. While effective, much of this work has focused on how to generate and optimize these sets. Less is known about why one setup is more effective than another. In this work, we uncover the underlying characteristics of effective sets. For each training instance, we form a large, diverse pool of candidates and systematically vary the subsets used for calibration fine-tuning. Each selection strategy targets distinct aspects of the sets, such as lexical diversity or the size of the gap between positive and negatives. On three diverse scientific long-form summarization datasets (spanning biomedical, clinical, and chemical domains), we find, among others, that faithfulness calibration is optimal when the negative sets are extractive and more likely to be generated, whereas for relevance calibration, the metric margin between candidates should be maximized and surprise--the disagreement between model and metric defined candidate rankings--minimized. Code to create, select, and optimize calibration sets is available at https://github.com/griff4692/calibrating-summaries

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

In recent years, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant progress but continue to face inherent challenges in multimodal reasoning, which requires multi-level (e.g., perception, reasoning) and multi-granular (e.g., multi-step reasoning chain) advanced inferencing. Prior work on estimating model confidence tends to focus on the overall response for training and calibration, but fails to assess confidence in each reasoning step, leading to undesirable hallucination snowballing. In this work, we present MMBoundary, a novel framework that advances the knowledge boundary awareness of MLLMs through reasoning step confidence calibration. To achieve this, we propose to incorporate complementary textual and cross-modal self-rewarding signals to estimate confidence at each step of the MLLM reasoning process. In addition to supervised fine-tuning MLLM on this set of self-rewarded confidence estimation signal for initial confidence expression warm-up, we introduce a reinforcement learning stage with multiple reward functions for further aligning model knowledge and calibrating confidence at each reasoning step, enhancing reasoning chain self-correction. Empirical results show that MMBoundary significantly outperforms existing methods across diverse domain datasets and metrics, achieving an average of 7.5% reduction in multimodal confidence calibration errors and up to 8.3% improvement in task performance.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

By design, average precision (AP) for object detection aims to treat all classes independently: AP is computed independently per category and averaged. On one hand, this is desirable as it treats all classes equally. On the other hand, it ignores cross-category confidence calibration, a key property in real-world use cases. Unfortunately, under important conditions (i.e., large vocabulary, high instance counts) the default implementation of AP is neither category independent, nor does it directly reward properly calibrated detectors. In fact, we show that on LVIS the default implementation produces a gameable metric, where a simple, un-intuitive re-ranking policy can improve AP by a large margin. To address these limitations, we introduce two complementary metrics. First, we present a simple fix to the default AP implementation, ensuring that it is independent across categories as originally intended. We benchmark recent LVIS detection advances and find that many reported gains do not translate to improvements under our new evaluation, suggesting recent improvements may arise from difficult to interpret changes to cross-category rankings. Given the importance of reliably benchmarking cross-category rankings, we consider a pooled version of AP (AP-Pool) that rewards properly calibrated detectors by directly comparing cross-category rankings. Finally, we revisit classical approaches for calibration and find that explicitly calibrating detectors improves state-of-the-art on AP-Pool by 1.7 points

Large language models (LLMs) offer powerful capabilities but incur substantial computational costs, driving the need for efficient compression techniques. This study evaluates the impact of popular compression methods - Magnitude Pruning, SparseGPT, and Wanda - on the LLaMA-2-7B model, focusing on the trade-offs between model size reduction, downstream task performance, and the role of calibration data. Our findings reveal that while SparseGPT and Wanda preserve perplexity even at 50% sparsity, they suffer significant degradation on downstream tasks, highlighting the inadequacy of perplexity as the sole evaluation metric. To address this, we introduce Jensen-Shannon (JS) Divergence as a more comprehensive metric that captures nuanced changes in model behavior post-compression. We further demonstrate that task-specific calibration data significantly enhances the downstream performance of compressed models compared to general calibration data. This research underscores the necessity for diverse evaluation metrics and careful calibration data selection to fully understand the complexities of LLM compression and its implications for practical applications.

Effective interlocutors account for the uncertain goals, beliefs, and emotions of others. But even the best human conversationalist cannot perfectly anticipate the trajectory of a dialogue. How well can language models represent inherent uncertainty in conversations? We propose FortUne Dial, an expansion of the long-standing "conversation forecasting" task: instead of just accuracy, evaluation is conducted with uncertainty-aware metrics, effectively enabling abstention on individual instances. We study two ways in which language models potentially represent outcome uncertainty (internally, using scores and directly, using tokens) and propose fine-tuning strategies to improve calibration of both representations. Experiments on eight difficult negotiation corpora demonstrate that our proposed fine-tuning strategies (a traditional supervision strategy and an off-policy reinforcement learning strategy) can calibrate smaller open-source models to compete with pre-trained models 10x their size.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have emerged as powerful models capable of understanding various data modalities, including text, images, and videos. LMMs encode both text and visual data into tokens that are then combined and processed by an integrated Large Language Model (LLM). Including visual tokens substantially increases the total token count, often by thousands. The increased input length for LLM significantly raises the complexity of inference, resulting in high latency in LMMs. To address this issue, token pruning methods, which remove part of the visual tokens, are proposed. The existing token pruning methods either require extensive calibration and fine-tuning or rely on suboptimal importance metrics which results in increased redundancy among the retained tokens. In this paper, we first formulate token pruning as Max-Min Diversity Problem (MMDP) where the goal is to select a subset such that the diversity among the selected {tokens} is maximized. Then, we solve the MMDP to obtain the selected subset and prune the rest. The proposed method, DivPrune, reduces redundancy and achieves the highest diversity of the selected tokens. By ensuring high diversity, the selected tokens better represent the original tokens, enabling effective performance even at high pruning ratios without requiring fine-tuning. Extensive experiments with various LMMs show that DivPrune achieves state-of-the-art accuracy over 16 image- and video-language datasets. Additionally, DivPrune reduces both the end-to-end latency and GPU memory usage for the tested models. The code is available https://github.com/vbdi/divprune{here}.

Controlling the attribute intensity of text generation is crucial across scenarios (e.g., writing conciseness, chatting emotion, and explanation clarity). The remarkable capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized text generation, prompting us to explore such smooth control of LLM generation. Specifically, we propose metrics to assess the range, calibration, and consistency of the generated text's attribute intensity in response to varying control values, as well as its relevance to the intended context. To quantify the attribute intensity and context relevance, we propose an effective evaluation framework leveraging the Elo rating system and GPT4, both renowned for their robust alignment with human judgment. We look into two viable training-free methods for achieving smooth control of LLMs: (1) Prompting with semantic shifters, and (2) Modifying internal model representations. The evaluations of these two methods are conducted on 5 different attributes with various models. Our code and dataset can be obtained from https://github.com/ShangDataLab/Smooth-Control.

Language models (LMs) are becoming the foundation for almost all major language technologies, but their capabilities, limitations, and risks are not well understood. We present Holistic Evaluation of Language Models (HELM) to improve the transparency of language models. First, we taxonomize the vast space of potential scenarios (i.e. use cases) and metrics (i.e. desiderata) that are of interest for LMs. Then we select a broad subset based on coverage and feasibility, noting what's missing or underrepresented (e.g. question answering for neglected English dialects, metrics for trustworthiness). Second, we adopt a multi-metric approach: We measure 7 metrics (accuracy, calibration, robustness, fairness, bias, toxicity, and efficiency) for each of 16 core scenarios when possible (87.5% of the time). This ensures metrics beyond accuracy don't fall to the wayside, and that trade-offs are clearly exposed. We also perform 7 targeted evaluations, based on 26 targeted scenarios, to analyze specific aspects (e.g. reasoning, disinformation). Third, we conduct a large-scale evaluation of 30 prominent language models (spanning open, limited-access, and closed models) on all 42 scenarios, 21 of which were not previously used in mainstream LM evaluation. Prior to HELM, models on average were evaluated on just 17.9% of the core HELM scenarios, with some prominent models not sharing a single scenario in common. We improve this to 96.0%: now all 30 models have been densely benchmarked on the same core scenarios and metrics under standardized conditions. Our evaluation surfaces 25 top-level findings. For full transparency, we release all raw model prompts and completions publicly for further analysis, as well as a general modular toolkit. We intend for HELM to be a living benchmark for the community, continuously updated with new scenarios, metrics, and models.

SemEval-2024 Task 8 is focused on multigenerator, multidomain, and multilingual black-box machine-generated text detection. Such a detection is important for preventing a potential misuse of large language models (LLMs), the newest of which are very capable in generating multilingual human-like texts. We have coped with this task in multiple ways, utilizing language identification and parameter-efficient fine-tuning of smaller LLMs for text classification. We have further used the per-language classification-threshold calibration to uniquely combine fine-tuned models predictions with statistical detection metrics to improve generalization of the system detection performance. Our submitted method achieved competitive results, ranking at the fourth place, just under 1 percentage point behind the winner.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in healthcare, yet ensuring their safety and trustworthiness remains a barrier to deployment. Conversational medical assistants must avoid unsafe compliance without over-refusing benign queries. We present an iterative post-deployment alignment framework that applies Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to refine models against domain-specific safety signals. Using the CARES-18K benchmark for adversarial robustness, we evaluate four LLMs (Llama-3B/8B, Meditron-8B, Mistral-7B) across multiple cycles. Our results show up to 42% improvement in safety-related metrics for harmful query detection, alongside interesting trade-offs against erroneous refusals, thereby exposing architecture-dependent calibration biases. We also perform ablation studies to identify when self-evaluation is reliable and when external or finetuned judges are necessary to maximize performance gains. Our findings underscore the importance of adopting best practices that balance patient safety, user trust, and clinical utility in the design of conversational medical assistants.

Most recent test-time adaptation methods focus on only classification tasks, use specialized network architectures, destroy model calibration or rely on lightweight information from the source domain. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a novel Test-time Self-Learning method with automatic Adversarial augmentation dubbed TeSLA for adapting a pre-trained source model to the unlabeled streaming test data. In contrast to conventional self-learning methods based on cross-entropy, we introduce a new test-time loss function through an implicitly tight connection with the mutual information and online knowledge distillation. Furthermore, we propose a learnable efficient adversarial augmentation module that further enhances online knowledge distillation by simulating high entropy augmented images. Our method achieves state-of-the-art classification and segmentation results on several benchmarks and types of domain shifts, particularly on challenging measurement shifts of medical images. TeSLA also benefits from several desirable properties compared to competing methods in terms of calibration, uncertainty metrics, insensitivity to model architectures, and source training strategies, all supported by extensive ablations. Our code and models are available on GitHub.

We present ELTEX (Efficient LLM Token Extraction), a domain-driven framework for generating high-quality synthetic training data in specialized domains. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive general capabilities, their performance in specialized domains like cybersecurity remains limited by the scarcity of domain-specific training data. ELTEX addresses this challenge by systematically integrating explicit domain indicator extraction with dynamic prompting to preserve critical domain knowledge throughout the generation process. We demonstrate ELTEX's effectiveness in the context of blockchain-related cyberattack detection, where we fine-tune Gemma-2B using various combinations of real and ELTEX-generated data. Our results show that the ELTEX-enhanced model achieves performance competitive with GPT-4 across both standard classification metrics and uncertainty calibration, while requiring significantly fewer computational resources. We release a curated synthetic dataset of social media texts for cyberattack detection in blockchain. Our work demonstrates that domain-driven synthetic data generation can effectively bridge the performance gap between resource-efficient models and larger architectures in specialized domains.

Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not fully characterize the joint distribution given the graph structure. In this work, we propose novel edgewise metrics, namely the edgewise expected calibration error (ECE) and the agree/disagree ECEs, which provide criteria for uncertainty estimation on graphs beyond the nodewise setting. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed edgewise metrics can complement the nodewise results and yield additional insights. Moreover, we show that GNN models which consider the structured prediction problem on graphs tend to have better uncertainty estimations, which illustrates the benefit of going beyond the nodewise setting.

Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems constrain to smaller ensembles and lower-capacity networks, significantly deteriorating their performance and properties. We introduce Packed-Ensembles (PE), a strategy to design and train lightweight structured ensembles by carefully modulating the dimension of their encoding space. We leverage grouped convolutions to parallelize the ensemble into a single shared backbone and forward pass to improve training and inference speeds. PE is designed to operate within the memory limits of a standard neural network. Our extensive research indicates that PE accurately preserves the properties of DE, such as diversity, and performs equally well in terms of accuracy, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to distribution shift. We make our code available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty.

The remarkable progress in text-to-video diffusion models enables the generation of photorealistic videos, although the content of these generated videos often includes unnatural movement or deformation, reverse playback, and motionless scenes. Recently, an alignment problem has attracted huge attention, where we steer the output of diffusion models based on some measure of the content's goodness. Because there is a large room for improvement of perceptual quality along the frame direction, we should address which metrics we should optimize and how we can optimize them in the video generation. In this paper, we propose diffusion latent beam search with lookahead estimator, which can select a better diffusion latent to maximize a given alignment reward at inference time. We then point out that improving perceptual video quality with respect to alignment to prompts requires reward calibration by weighting existing metrics. This is because when humans or vision language models evaluate outputs, many previous metrics to quantify the naturalness of video do not always correlate with the evaluation. We demonstrate that our method improves the perceptual quality evaluated on the calibrated reward, VLMs, and human assessment, without model parameter update, and outputs the best generation compared to greedy search and best-of-N sampling under much more efficient computational cost. The experiments highlight that our method is beneficial to many capable generative models, and provide a practical guideline: we should prioritize the inference-time compute allocation into enabling the lookahead estimator and increasing the search budget, rather than expanding the denoising steps.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language models (LLMs), which leverage dynamic routing and sparse activation to enhance efficiency and scalability, have achieved higher performance while reducing computational costs. However, these models face significant memory overheads, limiting their practical deployment and broader adoption. Post-training quantization (PTQ), a widely used method for compressing LLMs, encounters severe accuracy degradation and diminished generalization performance when applied to MoE models. This paper investigates the impact of MoE's sparse and dynamic characteristics on quantization and identifies two primary challenges: (1) Inter-expert imbalance, referring to the uneven distribution of samples across experts, which leads to insufficient and biased calibration for less frequently utilized experts; (2) Intra-expert imbalance, arising from MoE's unique aggregation mechanism, which leads to varying degrees of correlation between different samples and their assigned experts. To address these challenges, we propose MoEQuant, a novel quantization framework tailored for MoE LLMs. MoE-Quant includes two novel techniques: 1) Expert-Balanced Self-Sampling (EBSS) is an efficient sampling method that efficiently constructs a calibration set with balanced expert distributions by leveraging the cumulative probabilities of tokens and expert balance metrics as guiding factors. 2) Affinity-Guided Quantization (AGQ), which incorporates affinities between experts and samples into the quantization process, thereby accurately assessing the impact of individual samples on different experts within the MoE layer. Experiments demonstrate that MoEQuant achieves substantial performance gains (more than 10 points accuracy gain in the HumanEval for DeepSeekMoE-16B under 4-bit quantization) and boosts efficiency.

Image-based head swapping task aims to stitch a source head to another source body flawlessly. This seldom-studied task faces two major challenges: 1) Preserving the head and body from various sources while generating a seamless transition region. 2) No paired head swapping dataset and benchmark so far. In this paper, we propose a semantic-mixing diffusion model for head swapping (HS-Diffusion) which consists of a latent diffusion model (LDM) and a semantic layout generator. We blend the semantic layouts of source head and source body, and then inpaint the transition region by the semantic layout generator, achieving a coarse-grained head swapping. Semantic-mixing LDM can further implement a fine-grained head swapping with the inpainted layout as condition by a progressive fusion process, while preserving head and body with high-quality reconstruction. To this end, we propose a semantic calibration strategy for natural inpainting and a neck alignment for geometric realism. Importantly, we construct a new image-based head swapping benchmark and design two tailor-designed metrics (Mask-FID and Focal-FID). Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our framework. The code will be available: https://github.com/qinghew/HS-Diffusion.

Tabular foundation models represent a growing paradigm in structured data learning, extending the benefits of large-scale pretraining to tabular domains. However, their adoption remains limited due to heterogeneous preprocessing pipelines, fragmented APIs, inconsistent fine-tuning procedures, and the absence of standardized evaluation for deployment-oriented metrics such as calibration and fairness. We present TabTune, a unified library that standardizes the complete workflow for tabular foundation models through a single interface. TabTune provides consistent access to seven state-of-the-art models supporting multiple adaptation strategies, including zero-shot inference, meta-learning, supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT). The framework automates model-aware preprocessing, manages architectural heterogeneity internally, and integrates evaluation modules for performance, calibration, and fairness. Designed for extensibility and reproducibility, TabTune enables consistent benchmarking of adaptation strategies of tabular foundation models. The library is open source and available at https://github.com/Lexsi-Labs/TabTune .

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

The SoccerNet 2022 challenges were the second annual video understanding challenges organized by the SoccerNet team. In 2022, the challenges were composed of 6 vision-based tasks: (1) action spotting, focusing on retrieving action timestamps in long untrimmed videos, (2) replay grounding, focusing on retrieving the live moment of an action shown in a replay, (3) pitch localization, focusing on detecting line and goal part elements, (4) camera calibration, dedicated to retrieving the intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters, (5) player re-identification, focusing on retrieving the same players across multiple views, and (6) multiple object tracking, focusing on tracking players and the ball through unedited video streams. Compared to last year's challenges, tasks (1-2) had their evaluation metrics redefined to consider tighter temporal accuracies, and tasks (3-6) were novel, including their underlying data and annotations. More information on the tasks, challenges and leaderboards are available on https://www.soccer-net.org. Baselines and development kits are available on https://github.com/SoccerNet.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Denoising diffusion (score-based) generative models have recently achieved significant accomplishments in generating realistic and diverse data. These approaches define a forward diffusion process for transforming data into noise and a backward denoising process for sampling data from noise. Unfortunately, the generation process of current denoising diffusion models is notoriously slow due to the lengthy iterative noise estimations, which rely on cumbersome neural networks. It prevents the diffusion models from being widely deployed, especially on edge devices. Previous works accelerate the generation process of diffusion model (DM) via finding shorter yet effective sampling trajectories. However, they overlook the cost of noise estimation with a heavy network in every iteration. In this work, we accelerate generation from the perspective of compressing the noise estimation network. Due to the difficulty of retraining DMs, we exclude mainstream training-aware compression paradigms and introduce post-training quantization (PTQ) into DM acceleration. However, the output distributions of noise estimation networks change with time-step, making previous PTQ methods fail in DMs since they are designed for single-time step scenarios. To devise a DM-specific PTQ method, we explore PTQ on DM in three aspects: quantized operations, calibration dataset, and calibration metric. We summarize and use several observations derived from all-inclusive investigations to formulate our method, which especially targets the unique multi-time-step structure of DMs. Experimentally, our method can directly quantize full-precision DMs into 8-bit models while maintaining or even improving their performance in a training-free manner. Importantly, our method can serve as a plug-and-play module on other fast-sampling methods, e.g., DDIM. The code is available at https://github.com/42Shawn/PTQ4DM .

Markerless multiview motion capture is often constrained by the need for precise camera calibration, limiting accessibility for non-experts and in-the-wild captures. Existing calibration-free approaches mitigate this requirement but suffer from high computational cost and reduced reconstruction accuracy. We present Kineo, a fully automatic, calibration-free pipeline for markerless motion capture from videos captured by unsynchronized, uncalibrated, consumer-grade RGB cameras. Kineo leverages 2D keypoints from off-the-shelf detectors to simultaneously calibrate cameras, including Brown-Conrady distortion coefficients, and reconstruct 3D keypoints and dense scene point maps at metric scale. A confidence-driven spatio-temporal keypoint sampling strategy, combined with graph-based global optimization, ensures robust calibration at a fixed computational cost independent of sequence length. We further introduce a pairwise reprojection consensus score to quantify 3D reconstruction reliability for downstream tasks. Evaluations on EgoHumans and Human3.6M demonstrate substantial improvements over prior calibration-free methods. Compared to previous state-of-the-art approaches, Kineo reduces camera translation error by approximately 83-85%, camera angular error by 86-92%, and world mean-per-joint error (W-MPJPE) by 83-91%. Kineo is also efficient in real-world scenarios, processing multi-view sequences faster than their duration in specific configuration (e.g., 36min to process 1h20min of footage). The full pipeline and evaluation code are openly released to promote reproducibility and practical adoption at https://liris-xr.github.io/kineo/.

Fine-tuning for large language models (LLMs) typically requires substantial amounts of high-quality supervised data, which is both costly and labor-intensive to acquire. While synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising solution, existing approaches frequently suffer from factual inaccuracies, insufficient long-tail coverage, simplistic knowledge structures, and homogenized outputs. To address these challenges, we introduce GraphGen, a knowledge graph-guided framework designed for three key question-answering (QA) scenarios: atomic QA, aggregated QA, and multi-hop QA. It begins by constructing a fine-grained knowledge graph from the source text. It then identifies knowledge gaps in LLMs using the expected calibration error metric, prioritizing the generation of QA pairs that target high-value, long-tail knowledge. Furthermore, GraphGen incorporates multi-hop neighborhood sampling to capture complex relational information and employs style-controlled generation to diversify the resulting QA data. Experimental results on knowledge-intensive tasks under closed-book settings demonstrate that GraphGen outperforms conventional synthetic data methods, offering a more reliable and comprehensive solution to the data scarcity challenge in supervised fine-tuning. The code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/open-sciencelab/GraphGen.