Lack of accuracy for my open market price forecasting I'm trying to solve a problem to train my skill. I've daily data (each day during 10 years,2010 to 2020, except saturday and sunday).  I would like to predict like ten day after my data end.   Problem is my model are atrocious. I tried xgboost, svm and Prophet for now.   I think the problem is : I always worked on monthly data, and with monthly it's far easier to detect seasonality and so on. With daily data I'm kind of lost.  I thought : "Why not transform into monthly instead of daily ?" But how to predict only few days with monthly ? I don't think it's possible.   So if you have some tips to improve my work with daily data, I'll be very grateful. I'm quite new so any hel would be appreciated.  Thanks. :)
How to know that your machine learning problem is hopeless? Imagine a standard machine-learning scenario:     You are confronted with a large multivariate dataset and you have a   pretty blurry understanding of it. What you need to do is to make   predictions about some variable based on what you have. As usual, you   clean the data, look at descriptive statistics, run some models,   cross-validate them etc., but after several attempts, going back and   forth and trying multiple models nothing seems to work and your   results are miserable. You can spend hours, days, or weeks on such a   problem...   The question is: when to stop? How do you know that your data actually is hopeless and all the fancy models wouldn't do you any more good than predicting the average outcome for all cases or some other trivial solution?  Of course, this is a forecastability issue, but as far as I know, it is hard to assess forecastability for multivariate data before trying something on it. Or am I wrong?   Disclaimer: this question was inspired by this one  that did not attract much attention. It would be nice to have detailed answer to such question for reference.
get current user info using jquery ,REST and csom My goal is to get the login name and picture for the current user. I am using SharePoint 2013 Foundation. I tried three method and non of then worked correctly:   This is with jQuery SPServices:   function getCurrentUserInfo() {     var thisUsersValues = $().SPServices.SPGetCurrentUser({         fieldNames: ["ID", "Name", "Picture"],         debug: false     });      var name = thisUsersValues["Name"];      var ID = thisUsersValues["ID"];      var SIPAddress = thisUsersValues["Picture"];  }    But I am getting this error:     SCRIPT438: Object doesn't support property or method 'replace'      File: jquery.SPServices-2014.01.js, Line: 2414, Column: 17    REST API method:   function getinfo(loginName) {     var theData = {         "propertiesForUser": {             "__metadata": { "type": "SP.UserProfiles.UserProfilePropertiesForUser" },             "accountName": loginName,             "propertyNames": ["PreferredName", "PictureURL"]         }     };      var requestHeaders = {         "Accept": "application/json;odata=verbose",         "X-RequestDigest": jQuery("#__REQUESTDIGEST").val()     };      jQuery.ajax({         url: _spPageContextInfo.webAbsoluteUrl + "/_api/SP.UserProfiles.PeopleManager/GetUserProfilePropertiesFor",         type: "POST",         data: JSON.stringify(theData),         contentType: "application/json;odata=verbose",         headers: requestHeaders,         success: function (data) {             document.getElementById("profilelink").href = userProfileProperties[1];;             document.getElementById("username").innerHTML = userProfileProperties[0];             if (userProfileProperties[1] !== null) {                 document.getElementById("Userprofileimage").src = userProfileProperties[1];             }         },         error: function (jqxr, errorCode, errorThrown) {             console.log(jqxr.responseText);         }     }); }    Error:     "{\"error\":{\"code\":\"-1,        Microsoft.SharePoint.Client.InvalidClientQueryException\",\"message\":{\"lang\":\"en-US\",\"value\":\"The method         GetUserProfilePropertiesFor cannot be invoked as its parameter propertiesForUser is not supported.\"},\"innererror\":        {\"message\":\"The method GetUserProfilePropertiesFor cannot be invoked as its parameter propertiesForUser is not supported.\"        ,\"type\":\"Microsoft.SharePoint.Client.InvalidClientQueryException\",\"stacktrace\":\"     With CSOM:  //SP.SOD.executeOrDelayUntilScriptLoaded(getUserProperties, 'SP.UserProfiles.js'); function getUserProperties(targetUser) {      // get the target users domain name and account name.     var tUser = targetUser.substring(7);     // Get the current client context.     var clientContext = new SP.ClientContext.get_current();     //Get PeopleManager Instance     var peopleManager = new SP.UserProfiles.PeopleManager(clientContext);     // Get the properties to retrieve     var profilePropertyNames = ["PreferredName", "PictureURL"];     var userProfilePropertiesForUser = new SP.UserProfiles.UserProfilePropertiesForUser(         clientContext,         tUser,         profilePropertyNames);     // Get user profile properties for the target user     userProfileProperties = peopleManager.getUserProfilePropertiesFor(userProfilePropertiesForUser);     // Load the UserProfilePropertiesForUser object.     clientContext.load(userProfilePropertiesForUser);     //Execute the Query     clientContext.executeQueryAsync(onRequestSuccess, onRequestFail); }    I really don't understand where the issue is. Does anyone have an idea? Show that the range of $p(z)e^{q(z)}$ for nonconstant polynomials $p$ and $q$ is all of $\mathbb{C}$. php - Should I encrypt email addresses? How to design a product table for many kinds of product where each product has many parameters How to do selective-color in Photoshop? How to make the single color in a photography to be color and other parts changed to B&amp;W?.  Don't know exactly the name of the effect, to be more clear in the following photo I want the green part to be green and other parts( leg and sandal) in B&amp;W..    How to achieve that effect in Photoshop? Mac OS X Darwin: how to reset admin password? Today I bought an ibook G4 from a garage sale. The people who sold it to me didn't know the password for the 2 accounts on it. Apparently it was the guys late father's laptop. Any suggestions on how to get into the laptop and set a new admin account and password? So I have these two wheels parented to the leg of a robot. I wanna make them spin a few times but they're spinning around the wrong axis. With other objects I could just press R, Y, Y to make them spin right when they're already at an angle, but for some reason it doesn't work with these. Would be amazing if someone helped me fixing this! Automorphism group of direct product of groups I was working on a problem in group theory, which asks about the automorphism group of a direct product of groups.  Okay, so I know that if $G,H$ are two groups whose orders are relatively prime, then $\operatorname{Aut}(G\times H)\cong\operatorname{Aut}(G)\times \operatorname{Aut}(H)$.  I also know that if $G,H$ are abelian and simple and isomorphic, then $\operatorname{Aut}(G\times H)\cong \operatorname{GL}_2(\mathbf{Z}_p)$ where $p$ is the order of $G$.  What I don't know is the following: what if $G,H$ are simple, yet not abelian? Let us for now focus on a more restricted case where $G\cong H$, in particular, $G=H$. What can we say about the group $\operatorname{Aut}(G\times H)$? (I heard something about this group being related to what is called "wreath product", which I do not know...)  Thanks bunch in advance! is it problematic to cluster across two datacenters w/aag? In general is it problematic to cluster across two datacenters that are up to 15-miles apart?  For this one particular project the approach is the following?   2-Node Failover Cluster across two datacenters, one node per datacenter local SAN disks, no shared disks 'Node and FileShare Majority' at third location on-campus employ AAG, failover will be manual; asynchronous mode   Is anyone implementing something like this with success??!?  Thanks so much for the help!! What is the effect of having correlated predictors in a multiple regression model? I learned in my linear models class that if two predictors are correlated and both are included in a model, one will be insignificant. For example, assume the size of a house and the number of bedrooms are correlated. When predicting the cost of a house using these two predictors, one of them can be dropped because they are both providing a lot of the same information. Intuitively, this makes sense, but I have a some more technical questions:   How does this effect manifest itself in p-values of the regression coefficients when including only one or including both predictors in the model? How does the variance of the regression coefficients get affected by including both predictors in the model or just having one? How do I know which predictor the model will choose to be less significant? How does including only one or including both predictors change the value/variance of my forecasted cost? How do I add more categories to Mac OS X Finder's sidebar? My Finder sidebar has two categories: Favorites and Devices. How do I add more categories? Let $\{f_n\}$ be a sequence of analytic functions on a region $\Omega$ with $|f_n| ≤ 1$ on $\Omega$. Let K be compact and contained in $\Omega$. Suppose $\{f_n\}$ converges at infinitely many points in K. Then is it true or false that $\{f_n\}$ necessarily converges at every point of $\Omega$? What is a word that means "someone who pretends to be your friend but is actually your enemy?" I've got a simple Leaflet map with a basemap and one map-layer coming from my own hosted GeoServer.  I made the layers show up nicely in a map.  Now I want to add popups on the point layer showing information stored in MapService.  I couldn't find too much information about that topic.   There's one link to a working example but the link seems to be broken. I found another example which I addopted. You can see it on . I'd like to display the content of the name field in the attribute table but nothing happens when the user clicks the map.  Any idea? Why is the sky not purple? I realise the question of why this sky is blue is considered reasonably often here, one way or another.  You can take that knowledge as given.  What I'm wondering is, given that the spectrum of Rayleigh scattering goes like $\omega^4$, why is the sky not purple, rather than blue?    I think this is a reasonable question because  (or, strictly, violet or indigo) in rainbows, so why not across the whole sky if that's the strongest part of the spectrum?  There are two possible lines of argument I've  and I'm not sure which (if not both) is correct.  Firstly, the Sun's thermal emission peaks in the visible range, so we do actually receive less purple than blue. Secondly, the receptor's in our eye are balanced so that we are most sensitive to (roughly) .  Our eyes are simply less sensitive to the purple light than to the blue. Repeating something with (1/n)th chance of success n times Reading string from input with space character? I am trying to define an alternative \item command that would allow me to use a different color for some of the items. My code has the following form:  \documentclass{article} \usepackage{color}  \definecolor{gray}{rgb}{0.7,0.7,0.7} \newcommand{\grayitem}[1]{{\color{gray} \item #1}}  \begin{document}  \begin{enumerate} \item First item. \grayitem Second item. \item Third item. \end{enumerate}  \end{document}   I was hoping that  \grayitem Second item.   would produce the same result as  {\color{gray} \item Second item.}   but for some reason, these are not equivalent. They produce the following results, respectively:  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;   Why are these two lines of code not equivalent? What am I doing wrong and how can I change the definition of \grayitem to produce the second result?  I have also tried removing a pair of braces, like this  \newcommand{\grayitem}[1]{\color{gray} \item #1}   but then the third item becomes gray as well.  The solution should also work for multi-paragraph items. I was wondering what the max. length restrictions are for SharePoint Online Managed Metadata Service:  - TermGroup name  - TermSet name  - Term/Label name/value  I could not find anything on MSDN. A link to a source or reference would be fantastic, too. What is the correct JSON content type? I've been messing around with  for some time, just pushing it out as text and it hasn't hurt anybody (that I know of), but I'd like to start doing things properly.  I have seen so many purported "standards" for the JSON content type:  application/json application/x-javascript text/javascript text/x-javascript text/x-json   But which one is correct, or best? I gather that there are security and browser support issues varying between them.  I know there's a similar question, , but I'd like a slightly more targeted answer.