I have a small time series data with 10 observations Each observation is spaced at 20 days gap For example, I have sales revenue from day 1, day 21, day 41, day 61 till day 221... Now I would like to predict what will be the sales revenue on day 500th day amd 850th day? How can we predict using short timeseries data (which has only 10 observations)? Is there any specific technique that I should follow? Can you guide me on how would you guys do this? What are some of the topics that I should learn to do this? Can someone please help me with list of steps on how to do this?
I have a question related to modeling short time-series. It is not a question , but how. What method would you recommend for modeling (very) short time-series (say of length $T \leq 20$)? By "best" I mean here the most robust one, that is the least prone to errors due the fact of limited numbers of observations. With short series single observations could influence the forecast, so the method should provide a cautious estimate of errors and possible variability connected to the forecast. I am generally interested in univariate time-series but it would be also interesting to know about other methods.
VPN server on Google Compute Engine with OpenVPN Let $C$ be the Banach space of all complex continuous functions on $[0,1]$ endowed with the supremum norm. Let $B$ be the closed unit ball of $C$. Does there exist a $\Lambda\in C^*$ for which $\Lambda (B)$ is open? Note that $C$ is a locally convex space and $B$ is convex, balanced and closed set, by the separation theorem of convex sets,we know there exists $\Lambda\in C^*$ such that $|\Lambda f|\leq 1$ for all $f\in B$ and $|\Lambda f|&gt;1$ for $f\in B^c$. But how about this when we consider some concrete space above? Pronoun question: referring to inanimate objects as 'he' or 'she' I read the following claim concerning pronouns referring to inanimate objects:      Anything that is meant to contain you, protect you or provide you with something beneficial is [often referred to as] a she; anything that is a perceived threat is a he. That's why cars, boats and some countries are she.    Is this really the case, or is it just a subjective claim? (According to the  using he/she for inanimate objects is not recommended and it should be used instead.) Is there a 'rule' for determining whether to use he, she or it based on the impression one would like to express? (I only know the 'rule' for animals: In the case where you know their gender and they are important to you, you refer to them using he/she. E.g. A dog attacked me in the street. It bit me. versus This is my dog Roger. He is 7 years old.) Have these practices changed over time?   Note 1: There is already a similar question (), but that considers only the feminine case and none of the answers offers an objective discussion of the matter.  Note 2: My native language is Czech, where the gender of the pronoun is based only on the grammatical gender of the noun. E.g. a cat (kočka) is always she, a dog (pes) is always he, a boat (loď) is always she and a car (auto) is always it. Movie featuring  space crew, murders, a forbidden door and ending with a revelation I searched wide and far and couldn't come up with a title for a movie I watched somewhere around the mid-90ies up to early 00's as a rerun in late-night television (in Germany, specifically on Vox; but I'm sure it was an American movie to begin with).  Basically, what I remember from the story revolves around a crew in a space station or maybe space ship of some sort. Some crew members murder other crew members and there is some kind of door they are not supposed/unable to go through. Late in the movie they do go through the door and I'm pretty sure one of the first views is a skeleton of a dead security guard. It turns out the whole thing was some kind of simulation gone wrong and they find themselves to be in a (nuclear?) wasteland. And that's pretty much the revelation/wrap-up of the movie, as I recall it.  I would be delighted if somebody had any idea what movie this could be :) Thanks!  EDIT: The whole movie was in color and I think it was feature-length, not just 45 mins. How to add numbering to reference list but still use authoryear in natbib Is there an easy way to add numbers to the reference list generated by \usepackage[authoryear]{natbib} with whatever style file (using plainnat for ease)? Specifically, I use \cite and \citenum from natbib in order to have some references show up in the text as author-year and others just appear as numbers. Switching authoryear out for numbers in the natbib options generates a reference list with numbered references, but also causes the references in the text to all appear as numbers, which I don't want.  \documentclass[12pt]{article} % use larger type; default would be 10pt \usepackage[authoryear]{natbib} \begin{document}  \cite{A} said this, but other research \citenum{B,C} says otherwise.  \bibliographystyle{plainnat} \bibliography{MalariaBib,MST} \end{document} For QGIS 2.2.0-Valmiera, how does one increase the label size of OpenStreetMap layer or any other basemap layer?  Presently the labels are way too small to read.  For example, I find that for the same zoom level of a map in www.openstreetmap.com vs the same map in QGIS2.2, the map in QGIS2.2 has labels much smaller than the one from www.openstreetmap.com.  For illustration, click here: Managing Metered Connections on OSX How can I install a package without root access? I have no root access on this machine.  I would like to know if there is a way I can download Ubuntu packages and install them as non-root?  Probably in my ~/bin or ~/usr/share or something like that? Would that work? can't type lower cased e in amazon ec2 (Amazon Linux) After a few days of operation on my new ec2 build, the following happens:   I log into SSH, everything is fine, I do my coding I return the next day, and log into SSH I cannot type a lower cased e anymore--I get the error ding when I type it I try to ssh from a different computer, same problem I reboot the server, same problem I open nano or vi and e works fine, just not in bash or sh I terminate the server, create a new one, install from scratch, a few days later it happens again   This is baffling! Where do I even start to troubleshoot?  My Local Machine Setup(s):   windows XP or 7 putty (latest) or cygwin/openssh   The EC2 setup   Amazon Linux (default options) node.js iptables forwarding port 80 to node on port 8003 emacs, npm, and openssl-devel no other mods       Output of stty -a while I can't type an e  sh-4.1$ stty -a speed 38400 baud; rows 30; columns 95; line = 0; intr = ^C; quit = ^\; erase = ^?; kill = ^U; eof = ^D; eol = &lt;undef&gt;; eol2 = &lt;undef&gt;; swtch = &lt;undef&gt;; start = ^Q; stop = ^S; susp = ^Z; rprnt = ^R; werase = ^W; lnext = ^V; flush = ^O; min = 1; time = 0; -parenb -parodd cs8 -hupcl -cstopb cread -clocal -crtscts -cdtrdsr -ignbrk -brkint -ignpar -parmrk -inpck -istrip -inlcr -igncr icrnl ixon -ixoff -iuclc -ixany -imaxbel -iutf8 opost -olcuc -ocrnl onlcr -onocr -onlret -ofill -ofdel nl0 cr0 tab0 bs0 vt0 ff0 isig icanon iexten echo echoe echok -echonl -noflsh -xcase -tostop -echoprt echoctl echoke   In case it helps someone else with a similar issue, I created a script (called sub) to convert upper-cased E to lower-cased, then echo the command back. Then I run it in backticks to get an e on the command line::  #!/bin/sh echo ${@//E/e}  &gt; `sub Emacs /Etc/profilE`   UPDATES   This breaks for all users In bash only (csh works fine) In emacs edit mode only   I've created  and hone in the solution. Some of you might insist that it was not a murder, as we know that a rebounding spell had hit Ariana, as shown in .  However, a death in such a well known family would not go uninvestigated, I presume. Were the Dumbledore brothers investigated? How did they get away with their sister suddenly dropping dead?  I'd think that Ministry of Magic has means to recognize a death caused by magical means. That's how we know that Tom Riddle Snr. was killed by Avada Kedavra. So Ariana's failing health might be a poor excuse. Solving 4 Quadratic Simultaneous Equations Consider the equations:   $$\begin{cases} ab+c+d=3\\ bc+d+a=5\\ cd+a+b=2\\ da+c+b=6 \end{cases}$$   Where $a,b,c,d \in \mathbb{R}$. How can we find $a,b,c,d$?   The furthest I've got is by adding the first two equations and the last two equations together to get: $ab+bc+c+d+d+a=(b+1)(a+c)+2d=8$ and $(d+1)(a+c)+2b=8$ We can rearrange these (assuming $b,d \neq -1$) to get $$\frac{8-2d}{b+1}=\frac{8-2b}{d+1} \implies -d^{2}+3d+4=-b^{2}+3b+4$$ Which leads us further to $$b^{2}-d^{2}-3(b-d)=0 \implies (b-d)(b+d-3)=0$$ Now since $b=d$ gives us an absurdity (equations 1 and 4 reduce to 3=6), we must have $b+d=3$. This is as far as I can get unfortunately, since trying the same approach with the other pairs doesn't work in the same way.  Help would be much appreciated; the problem is from the BMO1 2004 paper. How to demystify the axioms of propositional logic? How might I go about getting some intuition on the typical axiom schemes given for propositional logic? They seem rather mysterious at first glance.  For example, these are taken from:    $\phi \to \phi$ $\phi \to \left( \psi \to \phi \right)$ $\left ( \phi \to ( \psi \rightarrow \xi \right)) \to \left( \left( \phi \to \psi \right) \to  \left( \phi \to \xi \right) \right)$ $\left ( \lnot \phi \to \lnot \psi \right) \to \left( \psi \to \phi \right)$ How to yield from parallel tasks in .NET 4.5 I used the following code to list my java code, but the it looks like there's too much space between words. What can I do?  % source code listing \usepackage{listings} \usepackage{color} \usepackage{xcolor}  \usepackage{caption}  % citation style \usepackage{apacite} \DeclareCaptionFont{white}{\color{white}} \DeclareCaptionFormat{listing}{\colorbox{gray}{\parbox{\textwidth}{#1#2#3}}}  \begin{document} \begin{lstlisting}[label=some-code,caption=bind to service call] bindService(new Intent(this, Recognizer.class), recConnection, Context.BIND_AUTO_CREATE); \end{lstlisting} \end{document}   The snapshot of what I got. The code not completely shown, and space too wide, in function bindService. How to prove $a^2 + b^2 + c^2 \ge ab + bc + ca$? How can the following inequation be proven?  $$a^2 + b^2 + c^2 \ge ab + bc + ca$$ Handling Calls to Remove a Moderator This discussion informed our process for seven years, but eventually required updates and augmentation. For discussion regarding the successors to this process, please see:    Stack Exchange has some of the best Moderators around — seriously — and that is due in no small part to the communities who scrutinize and vote in our Moderator elections.  We have a rather formal process for electing moderators, but up until now  has been quite informal. On those rare, rare occasion when things just aren't working out, you can see why it becomes such a sticky business to remove someone from a democratically elected position. Our current process is one of &quot;we've got your back.&quot; The Community Team routinely monitors moderator activities, so if a moderator violates the  or fails to uphold the , we can and do intervene. If the disputes and problems persist without resolution, eventually we can ask someone to step down. That's not good enough. We need a much more transparent and prescribed process for when — and more importantly how — to intervene when on-going problems are going unresolved. In urgent situations, we'll step in to protect a site, but ideally the process should be impartial and not subject to accusations of Stack Exchange simply applying undue influence over a community when the whim strikes. The Question: Before we start bouncing around ideas internally, I'd like to hear what you think. What process should be in place to add some checks and balances to deal with higher issues like possible impeachment of a moderator? When and how would such a process come into play? How should such situations be resolved? How do we keep it from being abused? Have at it. This is a round table vetting of ideas. How to create SQL like composite key I have an object in which there are two fields i.e Phone no. &amp; email. The combination of these fields should be unique Right now I can create just one unique field But I want their composite to work like a unique field.   I know that I can create composite key in SQL but I dont know how to achieve this in salesforce. How do I keep my character centred on screen? History substitution fails when implemented in shell script The below command works in command line  rsync -avh -r /Source/09_03_2016/ /Destination/ echo $(basename !:3)      Output 09_03_2016   But when I do this in shell script it does not work  #! /bin/bash  /usr/bin/rsync -avh -r /Source/09_03_2016 /Destination/; echo $(basename !:3)      Output  !:3 Yesterday, I have received two : Revival, and Self-Learner. However I was only notified of the Revival badge, because apparently the Self-Learner badge is not considered "".  What badges have their notification suppressed if the user has a 200-rep account somewhere on the Stack Exchange network, i.e. they won't trigger a new item in our achievements dialog?